Rick Weegman column: Bring on football, pass the stuffing

For as long as I can recall, Thanksgiving Day and football have gone together like cream cheese and bagels.Members of my nuclear family were not football lovers, so I’m not sure how my desire for pigskin went hand-in-hand with drumsticks since the time I was 7 or 8.The brat that I was, I would make sure dinner fell somewhere around halftime of the late-afternoon Cowboys game or I would turn on the 8-inch black-and-white kitchen TV so as to not miss a play.Not much has changed over the years. I’m still watching football morning till night (albeit on a larger color screen) and now squeeze in food preparation during pregames, halftimes or commercials.The Minnesota Vikings didn’t factor in many of those Thanksgiving games as a youth, but they have played a few memorable Turkey Day contests since. There was the 1987 game when the Vikes beat Dallas 44-38 in overtime as Darrin Nelson and Anthony Carter had huge performances; the 44-38 loss to Detroit in 1995 when portly Lions QB Scott Mitchell (remember him?) threw for 410 yards; and the 46-36 win over Dallas in 1998 that served as a coming-out party for Randy Moss.
Today’s game against Detroit isn’t likely to be as high-scoring as those classics, but with the NFC North lead on the line its importance can’t be overstated. And with an 11:30 a.m. kickoff, it should fit nicely into having dinner served by halftime of that Cowboys game.Pigskin Picks rebounded enough in Week 11 to let me eat cake instead of crow for dessert, but this is the go-for-broke week with a few key upset picks that will decide if I’m a turkey or not.Minnesota (6-4) at Detroit (6-4): NFC North might hinge on this game since Lions pulled last meeting out of their behinds three weeks ago. Lions defense is much improved in recent weeks and they have blown out last three Thanksgiving Day opponents. But all that goodwill ends here. With defensive and special teams TDs vs. Arizona, the Vikings showed intangibles needed to win at this time of year. Expect front line to make Matt Stafford’s life miserable.Line: Lions by 2½Rick’s Pick: Vikings 24, Lions 16 Washington (6-3-1) at Dallas (9-1): Clint Longley’s name is sure to surface from obscurity today when these NFC East rivals meet just as they did on Thanksgiving in 1974 (Redskins’ only Turkey Day win in seven tries vs. Dallas). Only this time the upset will be led by another long-ball thrower: Kirk Cousins (145.8 passer rating vs Packers). This might be the best game of the year.Line: Cowboys by 7Rick’s Pick: Redskins 31, Cowboys 30 Pittsburgh (5-5) at Indianapolis (5-5): Andrew Luck did not pass concussion protocol in time to play tonight. Is Matt Hasselbeck able to unretire? Like Steelers safety Sean Davis, I didn’t know Scott Tolzien was the backup. Line opened at 2 and has risen by a touchdown. There’s something not right about that, plus Colts are 12-1-1 vs. spread on Thursdays. Gobble, gobble.Line: Steelers by 8Rick’s Pick: Steelers 27, Colts 23 N.Y. Giants (7-3) at Cleveland (0-11): Browns’ QB woes are at such a low point they may want to consider bringing back Johnny Football. It’s back to Josh McCown this week. Giants have won five straight - all by seven points or less - so don’t expect a walkover.Line: Giants by 6½Rick’s Pick: Giants 23, Browns 16 Los Angeles (4-6) at New Orleans (4-6): Jared Goff’s debut was a glass half-empty or half-full depending on your viewpoint. His 53.7 QBR was akin to the Mendoza line, but he didn’t throw an interception. Rams defense is capable of bottling up Drew Brees, but an offense that has scored 10 or fewer points in four straight games can’t pull trigger on an upset.Line: Saints by 7Rick’s Pick: Saints 24, Rams 13 Tennessee (5-6) at Chicago (2-8): Jay Cutler may be out with a suspected torn labrum - though Bears coach John Fox is casting shade on that prognosis - so this could get truly frightening if Matt Barkley or David Fales lines up under center. Titans average 33 ppg in last three games, so this could get out of hand in a hurry even though Tennessee has covered only four of last 26 vs. losing teams.Line: Titans by 4½Rick’s Pick: Titans 26, Bears 10 (best bet) Jacksonville (2-8) at Buffalo (5-5): The Gus Bradley watch is on and could reach its end after Jags’ visit to the Snow Belt. Jaguars are 2-19 in last 21 road games and meet a team still vying for a playoff berth. But Buffalo never makes anything easy on itself.Line: Bills by 7½Rick’s Pick: Bills 31, Jaguars 24 San Diego (4-6) at Houston (6-4): Schedule makers didn’t do Texans any favors by giving Chargers abye week and Houston a short week after a game at 7,500 feet elevation. Texans have vaulted to AFC South lead based on 5-0 home record but that ends at hands of Philip Rivers and Melvin Gordon. Line: Chargers by 1Rick’s Pick: Chargers 27, Texans 17 Arizona (4-5-1) at Atlanta (6-4): Falcons need to win coming off bye week in order to maintain distance atop NFC South. Matty Ice leads an offense averaging 34 points and 334 yards passing at home. Cardinals will be able to move the ball, but nothing is turning out right for team or coach Bruce Arians.Line: Falcons by 4Rick’s Pick: Falcons 31, Cardinals 21 Cincinnati (3-6-1) at Baltimore (5-5): Bengals have swept series last two seasons, but minus A.J. Green won’t be able to attack one of the best defenses in the league (14.4 ppg, 230 ypg allowed at home). Few would have pegged AFC North as league’s worst division, but it’s possible the champion could finish under .500.Line: Ravens by 4Rick’s Pick: Ravens 20, Bengals 13 San Francisco (1-9) at Miami (6-4): Hard to believe this was once a Super Bowl matchup. There are no Joe Montanas or Dan Marinos in this game, however. Niners have lost nine straight - seven by double-digits - and Dolphins have won five straight so this appears straightforward.Line: Dolphins by 7½Rick’s Pick: Dolphins 27, 49ers 17 Seattle (7-2-1) at Tampa Bay (5-5): Bucs stayed alive in playoff hunt by winning at KC, but now an even tougher matchup awaits. Seahawks and Russell Wilson are finding their stride and move closer to a division title by winning this meeting of 1976 expansion entrants.Line: Seahawks by 5½Rick’s Pick: Seahawks 30, Bucs 17 Carolina (4-6) at Oakland (8-2): Raiders rallied Monday night in Mexico to win fourth in a row and take a one-game lead in AFC West. Meanwhile, Panthers are 0-7-1 vs. spread on road, flying cross country without Luke Kuechly and are averaging just 18 ppg in last three games. Easy pick, right? Nope. Call this the Mexico City effect.Line: Raiders by 3½Rick’s Pick: Panthers 26, Raiders 23 New England (8-2) at N.Y. Jets (3-7): Jets have covered last six series meetings and are coming off a bye. But this is still a matchup of Tom Brady (16-to-1 TD-to-interception ratio) vs. Ryan Fitzpatrick (8-13), something NBC didn’t want to show its viewers. Pats have won six games by double-digits this season. Make it seven.Line: Patriots by 7½Rick’s Pick: Patriots 29, Jets 17 Kansas City (7-3) at Denver (7-3): Two solid defenses match up against two average offenses in flexed-in NBC game. Surprisingly, road team has won seven of last 10 meetings. Denver had a bye week to heal while KC lost at home for first time in over a year. Broncos are 6-1-1 vs. spread at home so the guess is they cover again.Line: Broncos by 3Rick’s Pick: Broncos 17, Chiefs 13 Green Bay (4-6) at Philadelphia (5-5): Eagles are glad to return home where they are 4-0 and allowing just 9.5 ppg. Packers defense is hitting historic lows after allowing 89 points in first two games of road trip while injuries continue to pile up. Former Packers backup QB Doug Pederson might drive the final nail in Mike McCarthy’s tenure in Green Bay.Line: Eagles by 3½Rick’s Pick: Eagles 30, Packers 24 Last week (season) - straight up: 11-3 (97-62-2); against the spread 9-4-1 (79-74-8); best bets 1-0 (5-4). Rick Weegman is the News Tribune sports editor and, though gray-haired, did not celebrate Thanksgiving with the Pilgrims.For as long as I can recall, Thanksgiving Day and football have gone together like cream cheese and bagels.Members of my nuclear family were not football lovers, so I’m not sure how my desire for pigskin went hand-in-hand with drumsticks since the time I was 7 or 8.The brat that I was, I would make sure dinner fell somewhere around halftime of the late-afternoon Cowboys game or I would turn on the 8-inch black-and-white kitchen TV so as to not miss a play.Not much has changed over the years. I’m still watching football morning till night (albeit on a larger color screen) and now squeeze in food preparation during pregames, halftimes or commercials.The Minnesota Vikings didn’t factor in many of those Thanksgiving games as a youth, but they have played a few memorable Turkey Day contests since. There was the 1987 game when the Vikes beat Dallas 44-38 in overtime as Darrin Nelson and Anthony Carter had huge performances; the 44-38 loss to Detroit in 1995 when portly Lions QB Scott Mitchell (remember him?) threw for 410 yards; and the 46-36 win over Dallas in 1998 that served as a coming-out party for Randy Moss.
Today’s game against Detroit isn’t likely to be as high-scoring as those classics, but with the NFC North lead on the line its importance can’t be overstated. And with an 11:30 a.m. kickoff, it should fit nicely into having dinner served by halftime of that Cowboys game.Pigskin Picks rebounded enough in Week 11 to let me eat cake instead of crow for dessert, but this is the go-for-broke week with a few key upset picks that will decide if I’m a turkey or not.Minnesota (6-4) at Detroit (6-4): NFC North might hinge on this game since Lions pulled last meeting out of their behinds three weeks ago. Lions defense is much improved in recent weeks and they have blown out last three Thanksgiving Day opponents. But all that goodwill ends here. With defensive and special teams TDs vs. Arizona, the Vikings showed intangibles needed to win at this time of year. Expect front line to make Matt Stafford’s life miserable.Line: Lions by 2½Rick’s Pick: Vikings 24, Lions 16Washington (6-3-1) at Dallas (9-1): Clint Longley’s name is sure to surface from obscurity today when these NFC East rivals meet just as they did on Thanksgiving in 1974 (Redskins’ only Turkey Day win in seven tries vs. Dallas). Only this time the upset will be led by another long-ball thrower: Kirk Cousins (145.8 passer rating vs Packers). This might be the best game of the year.Line: Cowboys by 7Rick’s Pick: Redskins 31, Cowboys 30Pittsburgh (5-5) at Indianapolis (5-5): Andrew Luck did not pass concussion protocol in time to play tonight. Is Matt Hasselbeck able to unretire? Like Steelers safety Sean Davis, I didn’t know Scott Tolzien was the backup. Line opened at 2 and has risen by a touchdown. There’s something not right about that, plus Colts are 12-1-1 vs. spread on Thursdays. Gobble, gobble.Line: Steelers by 8Rick’s Pick: Steelers 27, Colts 23N.Y. Giants (7-3) at Cleveland (0-11): Browns’ QB woes are at such a low point they may want to consider bringing back Johnny Football. It’s back to Josh McCown this week. Giants have won five straight - all by seven points or less - so don’t expect a walkover.Line: Giants by 6½Rick’s Pick: Giants 23, Browns 16Los Angeles (4-6) at New Orleans (4-6): Jared Goff’s debut was a glass half-empty or half-full depending on your viewpoint. His 53.7 QBR was akin to the Mendoza line, but he didn’t throw an interception. Rams defense is capable of bottling up Drew Brees, but an offense that has scored 10 or fewer points in four straight games can’t pull trigger on an upset.Line: Saints by 7Rick’s Pick: Saints 24, Rams 13Tennessee (5-6) at Chicago (2-8): Jay Cutler may be out with a suspected torn labrum - though Bears coach John Fox is casting shade on that prognosis - so this could get truly frightening if Matt Barkley or David Fales lines up under center. Titans average 33 ppg in last three games, so this could get out of hand in a hurry even though Tennessee has covered only four of last 26 vs. losing teams.Line: Titans by 4½Rick’s Pick: Titans 26, Bears 10 (best bet)Jacksonville (2-8) at Buffalo (5-5): The Gus Bradley watch is on and could reach its end after Jags’ visit to the Snow Belt. Jaguars are 2-19 in last 21 road games and meet a team still vying for a playoff berth. But Buffalo never makes anything easy on itself.Line: Bills by 7½Rick’s Pick: Bills 31, Jaguars 24San Diego (4-6) at Houston (6-4): Schedule makers didn’t do Texans any favors by giving Chargers abye week and Houston a short week after a game at 7,500 feet elevation. Texans have vaulted to AFC South lead based on 5-0 home record but that ends at hands of Philip Rivers and Melvin Gordon.Line: Chargers by 1Rick’s Pick: Chargers 27, Texans 17Arizona (4-5-1) at Atlanta (6-4): Falcons need to win coming off bye week in order to maintain distance atop NFC South. Matty Ice leads an offense averaging 34 points and 334 yards passing at home. Cardinals will be able to move the ball, but nothing is turning out right for team or coach Bruce Arians.Line: Falcons by 4Rick’s Pick: Falcons 31, Cardinals 21Cincinnati (3-6-1) at Baltimore (5-5): Bengals have swept series last two seasons, but minus A.J. Green won’t be able to attack one of the best defenses in the league (14.4 ppg, 230 ypg allowed at home). Few would have pegged AFC North as league’s worst division, but it’s possible the champion could finish under .500.Line: Ravens by 4Rick’s Pick: Ravens 20, Bengals 13San Francisco (1-9) at Miami (6-4): Hard to believe this was once a Super Bowl matchup. There are no Joe Montanas or Dan Marinos in this game, however. Niners have lost nine straight - seven by double-digits - and Dolphins have won five straight so this appears straightforward.Line: Dolphins by 7½Rick’s Pick: Dolphins 27, 49ers 17Seattle (7-2-1) at Tampa Bay (5-5): Bucs stayed alive in playoff hunt by winning at KC, but now an even tougher matchup awaits. Seahawks and Russell Wilson are finding their stride and move closer to a division title by winning this meeting of 1976 expansion entrants.Line: Seahawks by 5½Rick’s Pick: Seahawks 30, Bucs 17Carolina (4-6) at Oakland (8-2): Raiders rallied Monday night in Mexico to win fourth in a row and take a one-game lead in AFC West. Meanwhile, Panthers are 0-7-1 vs. spread on road, flying cross country without Luke Kuechly and are averaging just 18 ppg in last three games. Easy pick, right? Nope. Call this the Mexico City effect.Line: Raiders by 3½Rick’s Pick: Panthers 26, Raiders 23New England (8-2) at N.Y. Jets (3-7): Jets have covered last six series meetings and are coming off a bye. But this is still a matchup of Tom Brady (16-to-1 TD-to-interception ratio) vs. Ryan Fitzpatrick (8-13), something NBC didn’t want to show its viewers. Pats have won six games by double-digits this season. Make it seven.Line: Patriots by 7½Rick’s Pick: Patriots 29, Jets 17Kansas City (7-3) at Denver (7-3): Two solid defenses match up against two average offenses in flexed-in NBC game. Surprisingly, road team has won seven of last 10 meetings. Denver had a bye week to heal while KC lost at home for first time in over a year. Broncos are 6-1-1 vs. spread at home so the guess is they cover again.Line: Broncos by 3Rick’s Pick: Broncos 17, Chiefs 13Green Bay (4-6) at Philadelphia (5-5): Eagles are glad to return home where they are 4-0 and allowing just 9.5 ppg. Packers defense is hitting historic lows after allowing 89 points in first two games of road trip while injuries continue to pile up. Former Packers backup QB Doug Pederson might drive the final nail in Mike McCarthy’s tenure in Green Bay.Line: Eagles by 3½Rick’s Pick: Eagles 30, Packers 24Last week (season) - straight up: 11-3 (97-62-2); against the spread 9-4-1 (79-74-8); best bets 1-0 (5-4).Rick Weegman is the News Tribune sports editor and, though gray-haired, did not celebrate Thanksgiving with the Pilgrims.