The absence of 1,500 registered runners for Grandma's Marathon next weekend could have a substantial economic impact because the majority of those missing athletes would have come from outside the region, judging from last year's participation.
After a race-best 9,888 entries in 2008, the number of applicants for Saturday's running of the 33rd Grandma's Marathon is down 15 percent, to 8,377.
About 40 percent of the decrease can be attributed to runners from the Twin Cities area.
Jim Skurla, an economist at the University of Minnesota Duluth, said the economic effects probably will be greater because so much of the exodus is attributed to visiting runners as opposed to residents of the Duluth area. Fewer out-of-town runners will result in lost revenue for lodging, food, retail sales and gas businesses.
"It's going to have an economic impact," Skurla said. "If those people are out-of-towners, it is going to have a large economic impact. The largest affect will be on hotels and eating establishments."
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While the number of Duluth runners registered remained about the same as last year, runners from 20 of the largest cities in the Twin Cities area dropped 23 percent. There are 367 registered Duluth runners this year compared to 371 in 2008, while Twin Cities runners have fallen to 2,072 from 2,690 a year ago.
Visit Duluth anticipates about 65,000 visitors to the area, including an estimated three supporters for every runner, and a projected economic impact of $8.6 million in lodging, food, gas and retail sales for the area.
"We still think that if you are looking for a place to eat Friday or Saturday night, you are going to be waiting longer because there are still going to be a lot of people in town -- and they won't all be eating spaghetti," said Gene Shaw, public relations director with Visit Duluth. Spaghetti is a favorite dish for runners to stock up on carbohydrates before the race.
The Hampton Inn in Canal Park and ZMC Hotels, with four hotels in the Twin Ports, have reported high occupancy rates for Friday and Saturday night of Grandma's weekend, but have seen a slight increase in the number of vacancies because of cancellations about 10 days before the race.
Hotel officials said normally they have just a few cancellations in the weeks before the race, but this year they were up to about 10 at some of the hotels as of last week.
But they said that hasn't affected their outlook for the high-traffic weekend.
"It hasn't been affecting us very much," said John Goldfine, president of ZMC Hotels. "We are close to full at all our hotels. ... I'm not worried about it."
The Hampton Inn reported about five vacancies last week.
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"Usually we have one or two," said Lorri Drake, general manager of the Hampton Inn. "I don't think we are doing that bad."
Grandma's Marathon points to two new marathons in the Twin Cities area this spring as the top reason for the downturn in attendance this year. The Minneapolis Marathon had about 3,400 finishers in two races on May 31, and the Stillwater Marathon had about 1,900 finishers across four races on May 24.
"When you look at the numbers those races put on the board, we're pretty confident the racers that typically come here chose to do those races," said Bob Gustafson, public relations director for Grandma's Marathon.
But while the new May races have diminished Grandma's marathon turnout this year, Gustafson said it could be a lasting benefit for Grandma's because more people could be participating in distance running.
"With more people getting out and doing those races, being more active and fit, we believe it will benefit us in the long term," he said. "Although it has affected our numbers for sure."
In the three races next weekend, including the Garry Bjorklund Half-Marathon and William A. Irvin 5-kilometer run, the total number of entries has slipped 1,280 from 17,849 to 16,569. Offsetting the losses in the marathon, the two shorter and smaller races have a record number of entries, with the half marathon at 6,670 and the 5K at 1,522.
