With state lawmakers poised to descend on the state capitol this week, there are many predictions being made concerning the outcome of the 2009 session. Upon their return, lawmakers will be facing an enormous budget shortfall of $4.8 billion, the largest shortfall since Gov. Tim Pawlenty took office in 2003. No legislator is looking forward to this daunting task of producing a balanced budget by the scheduled adjournment date in mid-May.
Constructing the state's biennial budget is no easy task even in the best of times, but with a whopping shortfall that is likely to grow by the time the next budget forecast is released in March, it will prove most difficult even for the grizzled budget veterans.
The rosy-colored-glasses crowd is predicting a budget agreement between the governor and legislative leaders within the confines of the regular legislative session. In contrast, some veteran pessimists are talking about a long, hot summer for legislators trying to forge a budget deal that could conclude about the time the Minnesota State Fair opens.
Having spent many a beautiful spring day entombed behind the capitol's walls working to find a budget agreement, my prediction is somewhere in the middle.A budget deal is not likely before the end of May, but chances of an agreement get greater as a government shutdown looms near the end of June.
Watching at home, there are several key dates to keep in mind. First, the governor is supposed to deliver his proposed two-year budget to the Legislature by Jan. 27. Gov. Pawlenty has stated his budget proposal would not contain tax increases. This will be a big test. Next, the Legislature will review the governor's proposed budget, holding numerous public hearings about the hardships his budget would cause.
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The key here is whether legislative leaders accept or reject the basic framework the governor lays out. If the governor's proposed budget is rejected by the House and Senate, as it probably will be, the gloves will come off and we will be in for a tough fight. After two months of posturing and testing various tax-raising and budget-reducing ideas, legislators will gear up the budget-dealing machine in early March when the next budget forecast is presented by the Management and Budget Office.
March and April will be a tug of war between the Democratic-Farmer-Labor-Party-controlled Legislature and the Republican governor. Some days it will appear the Legislature will prevail; other days the advantage will go to the governor's team. In early May, things will get very tense as legislative leaders threaten to pass bills the governor has stated he will veto. This game of dare and double dog dare could continue up until the scheduled legislative adjournment date in May.
Without a budget agreement, the governor may or may not call legislators back for a special session. The governor's negotiating power is increased at this point because only he can call back legislators. Things will get really interesting.
There's no doubt the 2009 session will be fascinating, with lots of heated debate, late nights, endless budget spreadsheets and trying to figure out which legislators are and are not running for governor. But in the end, the only way Democrats can even get close to a budget they want will be by overriding Gov. Pawlenty's veto -- and that is likely to occur about the end of June, just as the possibility of non-essential state services ceasing without a budget agreement by July 1.
This budget process is likely to have overtime. But unlike a football game, it is guaranteed to not end in a tie.
PHIL KRINKIE is a former Republican state representative from Lino Lakes and is president of the Taxpayers League of Minnesota.
