Those who long ago closed their minds about the potential of the red plan dismissed the numbers before they were even uttered Monday.
The naysayers concluded that since the Duluth Area Chamber of Commerce has been a longtime supporter of the Duluth school district's long range facilities plan, any analysis for which the chamber played a role would be tainted and unbelievably positive.
But how can anyone deny a number like 442 million?
That's in dollars, and the amount forecast to be generated in St. Louis, Carlton and Douglas counties as a result of construction work to repair and replace Duluth's aging school buildings. An initial $285.2 million investment by the district would be respent to purchase construction materials and to pay workers, among other things -- and then spent at least one more time when workers buy homes, groceries, clothing and other items.
"In layperson's terms, for every dollar spent on the entire project, another 61 cents in economic impact is realized in the area," James Skurla of the University of Minnesota Duluth said in a statement released as part of a presentation yesterday on the red plan's economic impact. "That's an impressive 'multiplier effect,' and, in fact, our numbers are actually a bit conservative ... since we used 2007 dollars in this research."
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And how can anyone deny the credibility of the experts who analyzed the red plan's expected boost to the local economy? Skurla isn't only from the UMD Labovitz School of Business and Economics Bureau of Business and Economic Research, he's director. And Drew Digby, who also took the podium during the presentation at the Radisson Hotel downtown, is the regional market analyst for the Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development.
Both men are leading authorities not about to risk their reputations by allowing biases to creep into their work -- no matter if it was the chamber that tapped them to crunch numbers and provide analysis or some other entity.
Their findings included that the nearly $5 million spent already to purchase and demolish properties for the red plan has resulted in a timely and critical boost to the Duluth area's otherwise-flagging housing and real estate market. They also found that the
$58 million spent this year on the red plan was a much-
needed recession neutralizer.
"It has been a mini stimulus package," Skurla said. "The red plan is a stimulus package at the right time."
As impressive and bottom line-shaking as $422 million is, the red plan's total economic benefit hasn't been determined -- and can't be until Central High School and other properties being sold under the red plan are purchased and reused by new owners. Reuse typically means reconstruction, and reconstruction means additional investment.
Beyond dollars and cents, the red plan will give Duluth high-quality educational facilities. And, finally, stability. For decades, uncertainty has abounded about what school buildings might be closed and what course of action the School Board might take next. Quality schools and confidence in the school system attracts and retains young families and can help bring new businesses and new industries to Duluth.
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And there's no denying that.
