The coming year is shaping up to be an unprecedented one. On Jan. 20, Donald Trump will be inaugurated as our country’s 45th president. And while Trump’s campaign notably was lacking in policy details, there were some key issues that were consistently a part of his message to voters: Clamp down on trade, repeal Obamacare and get tough on immigration.
Assuming he intends to follow through on these policies, it might be useful to consider how they might impact our region locally.First, trade. According to a memo drafted by the president-elect’s transition team, transforming or discarding NAFTA - the free trade accord between Canada, Mexico and the United States - is a first order of business for the Trump administration. This should concern our area’s 17,000 workers employed in mining, manufacturing, agriculture and transportation, not to mention those in supporting industries.Earlier this year, our organization, the Bureau of Business and Economic Research, conducted a study on the economic impacts of the trade relationship between Northeastern Minnesota and Canada. The study found that in 2014 exports from Northeastern Minnesota to Canada totaled nearly $450 million. And in 2016, Canada was directly invested in 20 businesses within the region, employing more than 3,000 local workers and contributing nearly $1.3 billion in output to our economy.Much of the reason for our significant role in global trade is our strategic location as the westernmost point on the Great Lakes St. Lawrence Seaway system. The Port of Duluth-Superior is the largest and busiest on the Great Lakes, handling an average of 38 million short tons of cargo and nearly 1,000 vessel visits each year, according to the Duluth Seaway Port Authority.Our port serves as a logistics hub for global supply chains. Here, shipping intersects with rail, truck, air and pipeline transportation. At the most recent Regional Economic Indicators Forum in November, University of Wisconsin-Superior Professor Richard Stewart spoke of the importance of our location in terms of global trade and even mentioned opportunities to branch out to new markets in China, capitalizing on our proximity to the Port of Prince Rupert in British Columbia. This explains why local experts in this area are cautiously waiting to see what Trump proposes for trade.“We will be watching very carefully as the new administration starts to detail policy,” Duluth Seaway Port Authority Executive Director Vanta Coda said. “We hope that thoughtful consideration will be given to all potential unintended consequences.”Another major policy change that could have significant impacts locally is the potential repeal of the Affordable Care Act, or Obamacare. As of 2015, Obamacare provided coverage for approximately 250,000 Minnesotans. Locally, the share of uninsured individuals dropped from nearly 10 percent in 2009 to 2.7 percent in 2015, with the greatest decreases in uninsured occurring among low-income individuals and those without a college degree, according to the Minnesota Department of Health.Assuming Trump follows through on his promise to repeal Obamacare, these individuals (more than 20,000 residents) could be dropped from their insurance coverage as early as 2018. While there are other options on the table as alternatives to repeal, including some Republican proposals, nearly all of these proposals include decreased levels of coverage, particularly among low-income individuals and people with the greatest health needs.Trump’s immigration policy likely will have fewer impacts locally, as our region has a relatively small share of immigrants. However, if we as a region want to improve our economic prospects for the future, we should push hard against anti-immigrant policies. From an economic standpoint, most experts agree that immigration is a positive and necessary strategy for continued economic growth.Regionally, our labor force is shrinking, our population is growing older and population trends don’t look promising. While the state of Minnesota as a whole has been able to combat these trends by attracting international residents, nearly 80 percent of the state’s foreign-born residents live in the Twin Cities’ seven-county region. Only 2 percent of the population of Northeastern Minnesota is foreign-born. Our region should consider policies to help strengthen our labor force and create new businesses by attracting this important demographic.So far, we’ve seen very few specifics on any of Trump’s policies; but depending on how he proceeds on these issues, the consequences for our region could be significant and the economic outlook uncertain at best. We will all be watching with great interest as the year unfolds. Monica Haynes is director of the Bureau of Business and Economic Research at the University of Minnesota Duluth. She wrote this at the invitation of the News Tribune Opinion page. What to expect … Monday: … in the city of DuluthTuesday: … in St. Louis CountyWednesday: … from the Duluth public schoolsThursday: … in St. PaulToday: … from the Northland’s economySaturday: … in tourismSunday: … in D.C.The coming year is shaping up to be an unprecedented one. On Jan. 20, Donald Trump will be inaugurated as our country’s 45th president. And while Trump’s campaign notably was lacking in policy details, there were some key issues that were consistently a part of his message to voters: Clamp down on trade, repeal Obamacare and get tough on immigration.
Assuming he intends to follow through on these policies, it might be useful to consider how they might impact our region locally.First, trade. According to a memo drafted by the president-elect’s transition team, transforming or discarding NAFTA - the free trade accord between Canada, Mexico and the United States - is a first order of business for the Trump administration. This should concern our area’s 17,000 workers employed in mining, manufacturing, agriculture and transportation, not to mention those in supporting industries.Earlier this year, our organization, the Bureau of Business and Economic Research, conducted a study on the economic impacts of the trade relationship between Northeastern Minnesota and Canada. The study found that in 2014 exports from Northeastern Minnesota to Canada totaled nearly $450 million. And in 2016, Canada was directly invested in 20 businesses within the region, employing more than 3,000 local workers and contributing nearly $1.3 billion in output to our economy.Much of the reason for our significant role in global trade is our strategic location as the westernmost point on the Great Lakes St. Lawrence Seaway system. The Port of Duluth-Superior is the largest and busiest on the Great Lakes, handling an average of 38 million short tons of cargo and nearly 1,000 vessel visits each year, according to the Duluth Seaway Port Authority.Our port serves as a logistics hub for global supply chains. Here, shipping intersects with rail, truck, air and pipeline transportation. At the most recent Regional Economic Indicators Forum in November, University of Wisconsin-Superior Professor Richard Stewart spoke of the importance of our location in terms of global trade and even mentioned opportunities to branch out to new markets in China, capitalizing on our proximity to the Port of Prince Rupert in British Columbia. This explains why local experts in this area are cautiously waiting to see what Trump proposes for trade.“We will be watching very carefully as the new administration starts to detail policy,” Duluth Seaway Port Authority Executive Director Vanta Coda said. “We hope that thoughtful consideration will be given to all potential unintended consequences.”Another major policy change that could have significant impacts locally is the potential repeal of the Affordable Care Act, or Obamacare. As of 2015, Obamacare provided coverage for approximately 250,000 Minnesotans. Locally, the share of uninsured individuals dropped from nearly 10 percent in 2009 to 2.7 percent in 2015, with the greatest decreases in uninsured occurring among low-income individuals and those without a college degree, according to the Minnesota Department of Health.Assuming Trump follows through on his promise to repeal Obamacare, these individuals (more than 20,000 residents) could be dropped from their insurance coverage as early as 2018. While there are other options on the table as alternatives to repeal, including some Republican proposals, nearly all of these proposals include decreased levels of coverage, particularly among low-income individuals and people with the greatest health needs.Trump’s immigration policy likely will have fewer impacts locally, as our region has a relatively small share of immigrants. However, if we as a region want to improve our economic prospects for the future, we should push hard against anti-immigrant policies. From an economic standpoint, most experts agree that immigration is a positive and necessary strategy for continued economic growth.Regionally, our labor force is shrinking, our population is growing older and population trends don’t look promising. While the state of Minnesota as a whole has been able to combat these trends by attracting international residents, nearly 80 percent of the state’s foreign-born residents live in the Twin Cities’ seven-county region. Only 2 percent of the population of Northeastern Minnesota is foreign-born. Our region should consider policies to help strengthen our labor force and create new businesses by attracting this important demographic.So far, we’ve seen very few specifics on any of Trump’s policies; but depending on how he proceeds on these issues, the consequences for our region could be significant and the economic outlook uncertain at best. We will all be watching with great interest as the year unfolds. Monica Haynes is director of the Bureau of Business and Economic Research at the University of Minnesota Duluth. She wrote this at the invitation of the News Tribune Opinion page.What to expect … Monday: … in the city of DuluthTuesday: … in St. Louis CountyWednesday: … from the Duluth public schoolsThursday: … in St. PaulToday: … from the Northland’s economySaturday: … in tourismSunday: … in D.C.
