The generalized weather outlook for our region for the next three to four weeks, from mid-September through early to mid-October, is expected to be warmer than average. This is a continuation of the warmer-than-average pattern we have experienced, more or less, for most of the past 12 months or so. This warmer outlook should not be taken to mean there will not be an early frost or even an early snow. It means that over the next few weeks, warmer than average weather will likely outweigh colder than average weather. We could still sneak in an early frost or two, or even a quick snow flurry, and still be warmer than average overall.

The even longer-range outlook for winter is largely indeterminate. Large-scale weather anomalies are not showing any particularly conclusive hints. Feel free to read up about La Nina or pick up a copy of the Old Farmer's Almanac if you like, but you will not be any better informed than you are now.

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