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Walker leads Burke 50-45 among likely voters in latest Marquette poll

Republican Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin has pulled ahead of Democratic challenger Mary Burke five weeks before Election Day, according to the latest Marquette Law School Poll.

Republican Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin has pulled ahead of Democratic challenger Mary Burke five weeks before Election Day, according to the latest Marquette Law School Poll.
The poll released this week said Walker leads Burke by 5 percentage points, or 50-45, among likely voters. The margin of error is 4.1 percentage points.
It also found Walker holds a significant lead among male voters, 62 percent to 34 percent, which poll director Charles Franklin called “astonishing.” He didn’t say why men were disproportionately siding with Walker. Burke leads among women, 54 to 40 percent.
The election is Nov. 4.
The race is closer among registered voters, the poll found, with Walker receiving 46 percent support compared to 45 percent support for Burke, with a 3.5 percentage point margin of error.
Franklin said the survey of likely voters becomes more important the closer it is to Election Day.
A slew of recent Marquette polls had shown Walker and Burke in a virtual dead heat among likely voters.
The previous Marquette Law School Poll, released two weeks ago, found Walker and Burke each receiving the support of 46 percent of registered voters. In that poll, Walker held a 49-46 advantage among likely voters.
While Walker’s lead in the latest poll has grown to 5 percentage points among likely voters, a Marquette Poll official noted it is still within the poll’s 4.1-point margin of error. That’s because one candidate could be as many as 4.1 points below what the poll estimates while the other could be that many points above. Thus, the leading candidate would need to be about 8.2 points ahead to be outside the margin of error.
This was the first poll since news reports came out that the Burke campaign copied parts of her jobs plan and other proposals from other Democratic candidates and other sources. Burke has blamed the copied materials on a campaign consultant and cut ties with him, but Walker and Republicans have repeatedly criticized her about it, including in television ads.
“The latest Marquette poll confirms what you and I know: We can win this if we step up now. Scott Walker and his D.C. pals know it, too - they are blanketing the airwaves with millions of dollars’ worth of ads to attack me and mislead Wisconsin voters - and they’re doing just that,” Burke wrote in an email to supporters. “They’re moving the needle among likely voters in their favor. This will come down to turnout, and we need to make sure we have the enthusiasm on the ground.”
A statement from Walker campaign spokeswoman Alleigh Marre again slammed Burke over her jobs plan.
“We’re confident that voters will want to continue moving forward with Governor Walker’s plan that has proven successful for Wisconsin families instead of moving backward with Mary Burke’s plan of stolen ideas from failed campaigns,” she said.
Of those surveyed, 54 percent of registered voters said they had read or heard about the reports on Burke’s jobs plan, while 45 percent said they had not heard, the poll found.
That was similar to the number of registered voters - 53 percent - who said they had read or heard about news reports that Wisconsin ranked 33rd out of 50 states in job creation, while 46 percent said they had not heard.
In the wake of the jobs plan news, 18 percent said it made them less likely to vote for Burke while 73 percent said it made no difference and 7 percent said it made them more likely to support her.
Regarding job rankings, 26 percent said the ranking made them less likely to vote for Walker, with 65 percent saying it made no difference and 8 percent saying it makes them more likely to vote for him.
Franklin also said “partisan filters” helped shape reaction to news stories such as those involving the jobs plan and job creation.
“If there’s news out there that might be negative about our guy, I don’t want to hear that,” he said, referring to the attitudes of voters.
The poll also found that 20 percent of registered voters polled had not learned that a photo ID would be required at the polls in November.
The youngest voters were least aware of the requirement, Franklin said.
Among likely voters, Republican Brad Schimel leads Democrat Susan Happ in the race for attorney general 41-39, with 19 percent undecided.
The latest poll surveyed 801 registered voters, including 585 likely voters, between Sept. 25 and Sept. 28, by cellphone and land line.

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