Global warming may not lower Great Lakes' water levels as much as some studies have suggested, according to a new computer model.
Using a new approach to modeling future water levels, researchers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory predict either a smaller drop or an actual rise in water levels.
The researchers reported their work online in the Journal of Great Lakes Research.
"Even small drops in lake water levels create problems for shipping and navigation, hydroelectric energy production and recreational boating," said Brent Lofgren, lead author of "Effects of using air temperature as a proxy for potential evapotranspiration in climate change scenarios of Great Lakes basin hydrology."
"While there are still many unknowns about how climate change will unfold in the Great Lakes region, our results indicate less loss of water than earlier studies," Lofgren said.
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According to Lofgren, earlier studies used air temperature alone to predict how much water evaporates into the atmosphere from the soil and plants in the drainage basin around the lakes. His study used an "energy budget-based approach" to better reflect the balance between the energy coming in from sunlight and energy given off from the Earth.
"The (computer) models show lower loss of water to vapor, meaning that more water is staying in the Great Lakes basin," Lofgren said.
