An early spring storm remains on track to affect the Northland from late tonight through Tuesday morning, but forecast models are suggesting the heaviest snow will remain well north and west of Duluth.
However, the National Weather Service says there remains a risk for freezing rain in the Twin Ports and along the North Shore - with the potential for "significant" ice accumulations in some areas.
A winter storm watch is posted for most of Northeastern Minnesota from Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon. A winter storm watch is in effect for Pine and Douglas counties from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon.
As of Sunday morning, it appears that areas north and west of the Iron Range - including International Falls - have the best chance of seeing the heaviest snow from the storm, with accumulations perhaps exceeding a foot in some areas by Tuesday morning.
To the south and east, warmer air may keep the precipitation in liquid form for part or all of the storm, likely limiting snowfall amounts. One area of concern, however, is near Lake Superior where gusty northeast winds off the lake on Monday may cool the lower levels of the atmosphere while warm air remains aloft - a setup that may allow for liquid precipitation to freeze when it reaches the ground, especially along the higher terrain in the Duluth area.
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Dean Melde, a National Weather Service meteorologist in Duluth, on Saturday stressed the need to keep tabs on the forecast because a slight change in the track of the storm may make a big difference in who gets snow or freezing rain, and how much.
“There’s a lot that has yet to be determined,” Melde said. “These early spring storms are notoriously difficult.”
Check back to www.duluthnewstribune.com for forecast updates.
Whether rain, snow or ice, the precipitation should start late Sunday night well north of Duluth, and pick up across the region on Monday - especially in the afternoon and evening hours. Areas that start out with rain may transition to snow later on Monday.
Duluth’s seasonal snowfall total stands at 104.7 inches, 26.5 inches above average and good for 14th place on the list of snowiest winters on record in the city. A snowfall of 2.5 inches would move Duluth into 13th place, and a snowfall of 4.5 inches would move the city into the top 10.
SNOWIEST WINTERS IN DULUTH
1. 1995-96, 135.4 inches
2. 1949-50, 131.8 inches
3. 2012-13, 129.4 inches
4. 1996-97, 128.2 inches
5. 1968-69, 121 inches
6. 1988-89, 119.1 inches
7. 1970-71, 116.9 inches
8. 1964-65, 110.8 inches
9. 2003-04, 109.9 inches
10. 1950-51, 109.1 inches
11. 1993-94, 108.3 inches
12. 1983-84, 107.3 inches
13. 1971-72, 107.1 inches
14. 2013-14, 104.7 inches (and counting)
15. 1955-56, 103.5 inches
