WASHINGTON -- The world will run out of seafood by 2048 if steep declines in marine species continue at current rates, according to a study released Thursday by an international group of ecologists and economists.
The paper, published in the journal Science, concludes that overfishing, pollution and other environmental factors are wiping out important species across the globe, hampering the ocean's ability to produce seafood, filter nutrients and resist the spread of disease.
"We really see the end of the line now," said lead author Boris Worm, a marine biologist at Canada's Dalhousie University. "It's within our lifetime. Our children will see a world without seafood if we don't change things."
The 14 researchers from Canada, Panama, Sweden and the United States spent four years analyzing all the available data on fish populations and ocean ecosystems to reach their conclusion. They found that by 2003 -- the last year for which data on global commercial fish catches is available -- 29 percent of all fished species had collapsed, and that the rate of population collapses has accelerated in recent years.
As of 1980, just 13.5 percent of fished species had collapsed, even though fishing vessels were pursuing 1,736 fewer species then. Today, the fishing industry harvests 7,784 species commercially.
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The National Fisheries Institute, a trade group representing seafood producers as well as suppliers, restaurants and grocery chains, said in a statement that most wild marine stocks remain sustainable. It added that its members could meet the rising global demand for seafood in part by relying on farmed fish.
Oregon State University marine biologist Jane Lubchenco said the new study makes clear that fish stocks are in trouble even though consumers appear to have a cornucopia of seafood choices.
"I think people don't get it," Lubchenco said. "They think, 'If there is a problem with the oceans, how come the case in my grocery store is so full?' There is a disconnect."
The researchers said the loss of so many species is eroding the viability of marine ecosystems and their ability to resist environmental stresses. In 12 marine ecosystems they surveyed, they found that a decline in biodiversity of 50 percent or more cut the number of viable fisheries by 33 percent, reduced nursery habitats by 69 percent and cut the ocean's capacity to filter and detoxify contaminants by 63 percent.
This phenomenon is visible in Maryland's Chesapeake Bay, where the collapse of the oyster fishery has reverberated across the ecosystem. In 1880 there were enough oysters to filter all the water in the bay in three days; by 1988 it took more than a year for the remaining oysters to accomplish the same task.
