The Number: 8.7 million
That's how many jobs were lost nationwide during the last recession, which officially lasted from December 2007 to June 2009. Many are marking the 10th anniversary of the credit meltdown this month, however, to coincide with the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the introduction of now-household terms like "too big too fail" and "asset capitalization." Or maybe just that first one. Anyway, it took until 2014 to regain those 8.7 million jobs, and today, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, there are 11 million more jobs than there were at the start of the recession.
The Word: "I made a mistake in presuming that the self-interests of organisations, specifically banks and others, were such that they were best capable of protecting their own shareholders and their equity in the firms," former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told Congress in October 2008. Now that's an economist diss if I've ever heard one. Stay tuned for a continued recession theme...
The Lead: Reporting this summer's story on the housing market, I asked around about the chances the industry could contribute to another recession - probably not, given the tightening of the mortgage market (fewer loans going to potentially unqualified borrowers). A more likely scenario is an over/undercorrection by the Fed, a protracted trade war or something altogether unexpected, people who missed the last recession say. Here's Bloomberg columnist Conor Sen this summer reading the tea leaves on higher Federal Reserve rates and short-term interest rates rising above long-term rates, the inverted yield curve: "A quick and dirty Fed/yield-curve model would argue that the earliest we should anticipate recession would be 2020."
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The Happy Hour: Dovetail Cafe and Marketplace inside the Duluth Folk School in Lincoln Park is less than a month away from opening. So while you're learning essential skills to survive the next recession (nailed it) you can grab some beer or coffee or a soup and sandwich in the custom log cabin inside the folk school - check it out.
The Meeting: "The Big Short"
To close this recession anniversary month, I encourage anyone with even fleeting interest in how things fell apart to read and/or watch "The Big Short." Once you really understand what short-selling is, everything falls into place.
The Memo is a weekly roundup of things to know, ya know? Send business news of all kinds to biz@duluthnews.com and give quick and dirty reporter Brooks Johnson a call every now and then at 218-723-5329.
